Climate change, economy, environment, income, retirement, risk management, Socially Responsible Investing, SRI

Rising Seas and the Risk to Retirees

Florida has always been considered a favorite retirement destination. The warmer climate attracting older American’s who have health issues ranging from Asthma to Arthritis, from Heart Disease to Parkinson’s. 20% of Florida’s population is over age 65 (compared to only 15% in New Jersey).

An additional challenge facing retirees in both Florida and New Jersey is climate change risk due to rising seas, storm surge and the potential loss of property in coastal communities.

In 2013, hurricane Sandy delivered a wake-up call to many about the danger to real estate as a result of hurricane force winds and storm surge. This past summer it looked to be Florida’s turn. Hurricanes Irma and Maria threatened to make landfall in Florida with devastating force.

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economy, income, interest rates, retirement, risk management, Taxes

Trick or Treat? Revisiting The Potential Downside of Tax Reform for Investors

There is an old story that goes “beware what you wish for…” Things don’t always turn out as expected. Two years ago the President proposed and Congress approved a huge tax cut plan… the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). The results have been controversial.

Along those lines I watched a fascinating interview of Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat, on Bloomberg two years ago. His insight proved very valuable and accurate. (1)

His feeling is that a Tax cut, as it was being discussed, could be negative for investors long term. “There’s two reasons; First, when cutting tax rate you raise the after tax cost of debt. Leverage becomes a problem for a lot of businesses. Second, because you are cutting tax rates you are effectively giving cash to all businesses, even businesses where you want to reduce allocation.“

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economy, income, interest rates, retirement, risk management

Economic Fears and Managing Risks

The economy continues to slow and is having an effect on markets. Incoming ECB President Christine Lagarde stated the US trade war with China has “dented global economic growth.”

“You can’t adjust to the unknown. So, what do you do? You build buffers. You build savings. You wonder what comes next. That’s not propitious to economic development,” said Lagarde.

“It means less investment, less jobs, more unemployment, reduced growth. So of course, it has an impact,” she said.

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economy, income, retirement, risk management

Investing with Stocks at Record Levels

I have talked to many clients. I have read and listened to many economists and Chief Investment Officers who are nervous about investing hard earned savings when markets and indexes are making new highs.

Many people feel the market is “due for a correction”; they worry about a “bubble bursting like 2008”; they look at the political environment and feel confused by what is happening in Washington DC.

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economy, income, interest rates, retirement, risk management

Recession Risks Rise

In a recent presentation to investors, Doubleline CEO Jeffery Gunlach stated he sees a 75% chance of a recession by 2020. (1)

Many signs are popping up that point in the same direction.

In August 2019 the yield curve inverted. (2) An inverted yield curve is seen within the financial industry as a reliable leading indicator for recessions.

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economy, entrepreneurship, new economy

“Morning in America…”

I was driving into work today and a Chevy Volt sped by me. Yesterday a Fisker Karma was parked in front of my office. In Q2 of 2019 Tesla produced over 72,000 cars, including the mass production version Model3.

Technology is bringing a renaissance to American manufacturing. (1) New industries and new job descriptions are being created, even as “old economy” jobs become antiquated and outsourced to robots. (2)

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economy, new economy, risk management

Management Flaws in Corporate America

The most recent rounds of corporate earnings reports for retail companies has by and large been very disappointing. Many companies are struggling to survive in an environment dominated by a few large ecommerce companies. (1)

Disappointing earnings have resulted in lowered outlooks and fallen stock prices of many retail companies. (2)

I recently had the opportunity to talk to several people who work in corporate America, particularly retail. What I learned is scary.

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Climate change, economy, environment, ESG, retirement, risk management, Socially Responsible Investing, SRI

Divestment From Fossil Fuels Gathers Steam

As an investor in todays economy, you have a say in what companies you invest in and support. By investing in a company, you are effectively voting with your dollars.

By the same token, as an investor you also have the right to the purposefully refuse to invest in a specific company or industry. Perhaps you disagree with their business model or you oppose the negative impacts they are having on society. This act of withholding investment is at the core of “Divestment”.

Without access to capital markets, fossil fuel companies cannot finance their operations. As fewer buyers come in to buy shares of fossil fuel companies, the potential value of these companies decline.

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Climate change, economy, environment, health, new economy, Socially Responsible Investing, SRI

Pending Meat Tax Could Change Economic Behavior

In recent weeks plant-based meat products have made real inroads into many popular restaurant chains. Many plant-based brands have developed models that make them cost competitive and flavor competitive with animal-based meat products.

Animal-based meats have been criticized on several levels. The role that CAFOs (concentrated animal farming operations) play in deforestation, methane release, pollution and accelerating climate change. In addition, several recent studies have shown that meat products have many negative health consequences, including cancer. (1)

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economy, new economy, risk management

New Employment Realities As Recession Risks Rise

“I’VE BEEN LET GO…”

It’s a terrifying experience… being fired or laid off from a job you have done well for a number of years. It seems daily that you see headlines of such announcements.

While the monthly jobs numbers are heralded as a sign of a strong economy there are undercurrents of weakness. More than half of all American’s have little or no savings.(1) Many companies report a weakening expectation for revenue and growth.(2) CEOs are concerned about the effects the trade war and it has caused many companies to delay capital investments and expansion.(3)

Many analysts have already indicated that Europe is in a recession. Some expect a recession in the US within the next 6 to 12 months.(4)

With that being the case, it pays to be prepared and understand what unemployment means in this new economic environment.

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