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inflation, interest rates, risk management

2023 Inflation and Parallels to the Seventies

My most vivid memory of the Seventies is sitting in the car with my siblings and parents in a mall parking lot the week before Christmas and my mother crying because they couldn’t afford presents and had to file bankruptcy. For a 12-year-old it made the challenges of real life… real.

The seventies were a traumatic time for many Americans… the end of the Vietnam war, the political chaos of Watergate and Nixon, the oil embargo, gas rationing throughout the decade, the suffocation of unions, the loss of jobs and industries as Japan and South Korea became exporters. Economic instability was an ever-present cloud.

Moving in waves through the decade, the economy suffered from bouts of inflation and deflation. It made policy decision-making challenging at best… boost the economy to keep it from slowing down, or is the economy running too hot?

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group life insurance, health, life insurance, protection, risk management

Job Change, Group Life Insurance and Russian Roulette

In the United States, there is a huge number of households which are unprotected or under protected by Life Insurance. In a 2018 LIMRA study 7 in 10 households believed they would be in serious financial distress if an adult in the household passed away. (1)

In an updated 2024 LIMRA study, 49% of American households were found to have no life insurance.

Of the households that have life insurance, 42% state they do not have sufficient life insurance to count themselves as protected.

One vehicle that many people rely upon for protection is Group Life Insurance. When offered as a company benefit, it can inexpensively provide protection for many people… but it only does so while the insured works for the company.

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AI, new economy

AI and the New Labor Economy

I have been writing for years about the impact the AI will have on the economy, and especially on workers. In 2023 many commentators remarked that…

“The death of big tech as a leader of growth and earnings has been grossly exaggerated. That was the message from Surveillance guests today ahead of results from Alphabet Inc. and Microsoft Corp., especially given the pace and scope of recent technological advancements. (1)

Neuberger Berman’s Charles Kantor said artificial intelligence hasn’t been fully priced into the valuations of tech companies.

“I am quite optimistic that the very large index contributors will deliver earnings of high quality, and they’re protecting their cash flows this year,” he said. He said AI-related developments can add 500 basis points of value to tech adopters.

Rishi Jaluria of RBC Capital Markets agreed, saying ChatGPT-like technologies will offer long-lasting benefits in profitability and efficiency for the biggest players, with Microsoft on the leading edge of that race for now.

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health, Veganism

Changing the Corporate Menu is a Great First Step

One of the most impactful actions people can take in addressing the climate crisis is to change their diet from the Standard American Diet (SAD) based on heavy meat consumption, to a plant-based vegan diet. (1)

Animal agriculture and Concentrated Animal Farming Operations (CAFOs) are a primary cause of CO2 and methane, the two main gases contributing to rising temperatures worldwide. The farming of animals also drives deforestation and environmental breakdown, aggravating the crisis.

By shifting to a plant-based diet we can start reducing our demand on our fragile planet.

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ESG, health, risk management, Socially Responsible Investing, Veganism

Veganism and Climate Change

It is becoming increasing clear that humankind is driving climate change. Increasing temperatures, disastrous weather, and sea level rise are the result of rapidly rising levels of CO2 and methane.

UN reports make clear that we need to take action immediately.

“We are at a crossroads. The decisions we make now can secure a livable future. We have the tools and know-how required to limit warming,” said IPCC Chair Hoesung Lee. (1)

“Climate change is the result of more than a century of unsustainable energy and land use, lifestyles and patterns of consumption and production,” said IPCC Working Group III Co-Chair Jim Skea. 

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health, life insurance, protection, risk management, Veganism

life insurance and a healthy plant-based diet could be good ways to manage risk

The purpose of life insurance is to manage risk. Individuals and families need protection in the event a primary bread winner passes away.

Several factors drive what life insurance costs for an individual. Women tend to live longer, so their cost for life insurance is lower than it is for men. The healthier a person is, the less expensive it is for them to obtain life insurance. People who smoke pay significantly more for life insurance.

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ESG, risk management, Socially Responsible Investing

A Unique Investment Approach

For the past 15 years I have developed my investment practice around a core thesis…

“Do your investments match your values?”

While this question can pull people in many varied directions, the underlying truth is that investors are interested in reducing their risks, and thereby improving their performance. Many people recognize that investment markets tend to underappreciate the impacts companies have on society and the environment.

While the planet is undergoing profound challenges due to climate change, investment professionals tend to not appreciate the connections to fossil fuel companies and their role in the crisis. Meanwhile, many investors of all age brackets do see the connection and are demanding better options for their investments. (1)

My work focuses on helping clients divest from fossil fuel companies, and the companies that support climate destruction. In doing so my goal is 3-fold; 1) to attempt to avoid the risks associated with sunken assets in the fossil fuel industry, 2) invest in companies that benefit from the economy becoming “decarbonized”, and 3) managing macroeconomic risk that is generated by the transition.

There is abundant scientific evidence that the climate crisis is affecting the environment and the economy. (2) Fires raging in the West, droughts affecting crops, temperatures driving rising energy prices, floods and storms affecting millions around the world… People are waking up to vote with their dollars.

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health, life insurance, protection, risk management, Veganism

Diet, Health, and the Financial Impact on Life Insurance

The purpose of life insurance is to manage risk. Individuals and families need protection in the event a primary bread winner passes away.

Several factors drive what life insurance costs for an individual. Women tend to live longer, so their cost for life insurance is lower than it is for men. The healthier a person is, the less expensive it is for them to obtain life insurance. People who smoke pay significantly more for life insurance.

Each person’s health situation is unique. Part of the process of obtaining life insurance is to collect medical samples for testing. The underwriter reviews records from your doctors over the past 5 years. They also examine driving records.

Once all of the information is collected the underwriter evaluates the data at hand and assigns the insured person a health rating. The better the rating, the lower the premium you pay.

So how much of an impact do health issues have on a person’s ability to afford life insurance?

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inflation, interest rates, risk management

Fed Expects Higher Inflation in 2025

In September 2024, the Federal Reserve finally started to cut rates after seeing lower inflation, strong labor markets and economic stregnth. The expectations at that point was for the Fed to cut rates 2 more times in 2024 and at least 4 more times in 2025. (1)

In November 2024, Trump was declared the winner of the presidential election and economists and Fed officials began to consider what impact policies around taxes, tarriffs and immigration would have on the economy. Going into the December FOMC meeting the expectation was for fed to cut rates 25bps, but the market was on edge as to whether the Fed plans to make further cuts in 2025. Could these new policies in the new year stoke or reignite inflation? (2)

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ESG, risk management, Socially Responsible Investing

Why Divest From Fossil Fuels…

In October 2024 the panhandle of Florida and western North Carolina were decimated by hurricane Helene. It is already expected to be one of the 10 most expensive disasters in the world. So far 216 are confirmed dead and over 600 people are missing. A week later hurricane Milton has grown to a category 5 storm overnight and is getting ready to strike the west coast of Florida.

We are living in an age of consequences.

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ESG, risk management, Socially Responsible Investing

Climate Crisis Impact on the Economy

In a recent Harvard and NBER study, economists evaluated what impact the climate crisis is expected to have on the global economy. “This paper estimates that the macroeconomic damages from climate change are six times larger than previously thought. A 1 degree Celsius increase in global temperature leads to a 12% decline in world GDP.” They summarize, “A business-as-usual warming scenario leads to a present value welfare loss of 31%. These are multiple orders of magnitude above previous estimates and imply that unilateral decarbonization policy is cost effective for large countries like the United States.” (1)

The study continues, “Climate change implies precipitous declines in output, capital and consumption that reach 47% by 2100. These magnitudes are comparable to the economic damage caused by the 1929 Great Depression, but experienced permanently.”

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protection, risk management

Strategies to Help Avoid Running Out of Money in Retirement

A recent study by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College found that “many younger baby boomers and members of subsequent generations who don’t have access to a traditional pension could outlive the funds in their 401(k) accounts.” (1)

In the 1980s 401k plans began to replace pension plans in the workplace. Workers became responsible for accumulating their own retirement savings. Of workers born in 1947, 52% had pensions. By comparison workers born only 10 years later, only 21% had pensions.

The study compared retiree spending for people who had pensions and those who only had a 401k. They found that “retirees with pensions often didn’t spend their savings at all. In fact, many saw their nest eggs continue to grow after they stopped working.”

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inflation, interest rates, risk management

“The Menace of Inflation”: Inflation in Perspective

In May 1974 Fed Chairman Arthur Burns gave a commencement speech to Illinois College. The speech was titled “The Menace of Inflation”.

At this point in the 1970s the nation had been struggling with high inflation for four long years… For perspective, we have been only dealing with high and rising inflation for one year so far. His voice offers a view of what to expect in the years to come.

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ESG, risk management, Socially Responsible Investing

Are all ESG funds “green”?

The question is one that is asked frequently, and recently came up in a conversation with a new client. The quick answer is no…

Even when funds are labeled “green” or “ESG” it is important to understand that these labels mean different things to different managers and investors. Some focus on corporate governance, some focus on diversity and labor issues, some focus on shareholder activism, some focus on environmental issues. It is important to look deeper into your investments to make sure they align with your expectations and demands.

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charitable giving, entrepreneurship, life insurance, new economy, protection, Socially Responsible Investing

Embracing the Future: An Interview with Charlotte Markward

I met Charlotte and her Husband Randy years ago at a Green Drinks in Philadelphia. It was before the days of Tesla, widespread solar power and organic food sections at the grocery store. People got together to share a beer and dream about a future that would be more sustainable. Things have changed a great deal in the past few years.

Charlotte is a graphic designer based in Philadelphia. She has agreed to share some of her experiences and insights so that we all might have an easier path to financial security.

Charlotte has been interested in supporting socially responsible investing for many years. I asked her what it means to her. Charlotte said, “For one thing it’s smart. We have a finite amount of resources and we are running out of them. To continue doing things in the old ways is to set yourself up for failure. Green investment is where the growth will be.”

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