Category: risk management

Climate change, environment, risk management, Socially Responsible Investing, SRI

Greta Thunberg, David Hume, “State of Nature” and Climate Change

James Cox

The climate crisis is worsening…

June 2024 was the hottest month globally in recorded history. (6)

In a speech to the Austrian World Summit in June 2021, Greta Thunberg called out global leaders for their inaction. (1)

“During this time, more and more people around the world have woken up to the climate and ecological crisis, putting more and more pressure on you, the people in power. Eventually, the public pressure was too much and you had the world’s eyes on you. So you started to act…

Not acting as in taking climate action, but acting as in role playing, playing politics, playing with words and playing with our future, pretending to take responsibility, acting as saviors as you try to convince us that things are being taken care of.

Meanwhile the gap between your rhetoric and reality keeps growing wider and wider, and since the level of awareness is so low, you almost get away with it.”

Greta Thunberg raises a crucial issue that needs to be addressed for humanity to overcome the climate crisis…

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entrepreneurship, key man insurance, protection, risk management

Protecting your business, and your legacy

James Cox

Most business owners, CEOs and executives are laser focused on driving their business or enterprise towards success. They are responsible for preserving and expanding sales and revenue. They are responsible for hiring and firing. They are responsible to investors and stakeholders to manage risk and ensure success. They handle client relationships, research and development, marketing and IT… As leaders they wear many hats and carry a lot of weight on their shoulders.

But what happens when a CEO or leader within a company passes away? What is the impact on the business and the employees who depend on that business for their livelihood?

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inflation, interest rates, risk management

2023 Inflation and Parallels to the Seventies

James Cox

My most vivid memory of the Seventies is sitting in the car with my siblings and parents in a mall parking lot the week before Christmas and my mother crying because they couldn’t afford presents and had to file bankruptcy. For a 12-year-old it made the challenges of real life… real.

The seventies were a traumatic time for many Americans… the end of the Vietnam war, the political chaos of Watergate and Nixon, the oil embargo, gas rationing throughout the decade, the suffocation of unions, the loss of jobs and industries as Japan and South Korea became exporters. Economic instability was an ever-present cloud.

Moving in waves through the decade, the economy suffered from bouts of inflation and deflation. It made policy decision-making challenging at best… boost the economy to keep it from slowing down, or is the economy running too hot?

When you drill down one sees many similarities between conditions that led to the “stagflation of the 1970s” and the situation we find ourselves in today.

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inflation, interest rates, risk management

Inflation and Jobs, May 2023

James Cox

On Weds. May 10th Core inflation held steady at 5.5% y/y. (2) Core inflation excludes the volatile food and energy components.

“It’s a head fake,” said Vincent Reinhart at Dreyfus & Mellon. (1)

From the Fed’s vantage point, “You better be sure when you stop, you’re not going to look back and regret it just a couple months later,” Reinhart said. The Fed really needs to be confident that inflation “is headed back to 2%. This is just another drop in the ocean.”

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Climate change, ESG, risk management, Socially Responsible Investing, SRI

A Unique Investment Approach

James Cox

For the past 15 years I have developed my investment practice around a core thesis…

“Do your investments match your values?”

While this question can pull people in many varied directions, the underlying truth is that investors are interested in reducing their risks, and thereby improving their performance. Many people recognize that investment markets tend to underappreciate the impacts companies have on society and the environment.

While the planet is undergoing profound challenges due to climate change, investment professionals tend to not appreciate the connections to fossil fuel companies and their role in the crisis. Meanwhile, many investors of all age brackets do see the connection and are demanding better options for their investments. (1)

My work focuses on helping clients divest from fossil fuel companies, and the companies that support climate destruction. In doing so my goal is 3-fold; 1) to avoid the risks associated with sunken assets in the fossil fuel industry, 2) invest in companies that benefit from the economy becoming “decarbonized”, and 3) managing macroeconomic risk that is generated by the transition. This approach has typically outperformed comparable indexes over the past 10 years.

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AI, new economy, risk management

AI and the New Labor Economy

James Cox

I have been writing for years about the impact the AI will have on the economy, and especially on workers. Recent advances have led to many commentators remark that…

“The death of big tech as a leader of growth and earnings has been grossly exaggerated. That was the message from Surveillance guests today ahead of results from Alphabet Inc. and Microsoft Corp., especially given the pace and scope of recent technological advancements. (1)

Neuberger Berman’s Charles Kantor says artificial intelligence hasn’t been fully priced into the valuations of tech companies.

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Climate change, environment, ESG, risk management, Socially Responsible Investing, SRI, Veganism

Veganism and Climate Change

James Cox

It is becoming increasing clear that humankind is driving climate change. Increasing temperatures, disastrous weather, and sea level rise are the result of rapidly rising levels of CO2 and methane.

Recent UN reports make clear that we need to take action immediately.

“We are at a crossroads. The decisions we make now can secure a livable future. We have the tools and know-how required to limit warming,” said IPCC Chair Hoesung Lee. (1)

“Climate change is the result of more than a century of unsustainable energy and land use, lifestyles and patterns of consumption and production,” said IPCC Working Group III Co-Chair Jim Skea. 

A recent UN report specifically outlined the impact that factory farms and animal agriculture is having on the environment.

“What we eat, and how that food is produced, affects our health but also the environment. Food needs to be grown and processed, transported, distributed, prepared, consumed, and sometimes disposed of. Each of these steps creates greenhouse gases that trap the sun’s heat and contribute to climate change. About a third of all human-caused greenhouse gas emissions is linked to food.” (2)
 

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income, interest rates, risk management

January 2023 Jobs Day

James Cox

After a year of the Fed raising rates, bubbles deflating and inflation surging to levels last seen in the 1980s, economists and investors are girding themselves for 2023. The first signpost of where the economy is headed was the January Jobs report on 1/6/2023.

Will the employment market continue its strong run of reports? Is the economy slowing? Will the Fed be forced to continue hiking or, as markets hope, will they start cutting rates?

Expectations are for the Fed to continue hiking rates to a level above 5%; currently rates are 4.25%.

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income, interest rates, risk management

Echoes of Jackson Hole… Sept jobs day, CPI, and the Fed

James Cox

On August 26th Fed Chair Jerome Powell addressed economists and decision-makers at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole conference. His remarks had been anticipated for months. The inflation raging through the economy and repeated Fed rate hikes have deflated some of the bubbles we saw at the start of 2022.

The question is, will the Fed slow its rate hikes and allow the economy to have a “soft landing” or will the Fed keep raising rates potentially crashing the economy…

Powell left no doubt about the path forward.

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