Several years ago, Bloomberg Businessweek did a bio pic on Hank Paulson, Bush’s Treasury secretary who served during the Financial Crisis of 2008. After reviewing the events that led to the Crisis, connecting the dots, and seeing the impact of what happened, Paulson had this to say at the end of the film…
“The whole reason I’m doing this, is not because I want to look back, but because I have increasingly come to the view that it’s important that there be a historical record for those that come after me, so we don’t replay this movie all over again.” (1)
Fast-forward to November 2019, and we saw many positive and negative conditions developing that raised questions about the stock market and the health of the US economy.
Since the summer of 2019 financial conditions have noticeably weakened as the trade war with China has started having a significant economic impact. American and Chinese officials have spoken publicly that progress is being made. Hopes of a trade deal had driven equity markets higher, but as of December 2019 there is still no deal.
The trade war had caused a real decline in business investment and optimism. A CFO survey in the Fall of 2019 showed, “U.S. business optimism dropped this quarter to its lowest level in three years, according to third-quarter results from the Duke University/CFO Global Business Outlook. A majority of CFOs expect a recession to start before the presidential election.” (2)
This lack of business confidence had slowed growth in the economy and motivated the Fed to cut interest rates several times this year. This was all before COVID crippled the economy in the Spring of 2020…
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