It has been a turbulent week…
Price of gasoline rose to the highest since 2014 at $3.43/gallon. Brent crude is at $93 per barrel.
Inflation number to be released next week is expected to rise to 7.3%, from 7.1% in January
On Thursday, the ECB announced it would pull back from QE faster than expected after their meeting on 2/3/22. ECB pivoted away from their policy of “lower rates for longer”. As a result, Italian yields are up dramatically. Yields of Italian bonds started the week at 1.2%… by Friday yields were over 1.7%. Negative yielding debt is at lowest level since 2018.
At a meeting in the UK, Bank of England Governor Bailey called on unions to hold off on demands for pay increases. Union officials called it “a sick joke”.
In equity markets Facebook (Meta) fell 25% and lost over $200billion in value overnight due to slower growth. The next day Amazon rose 15% and gained over $150billion in value on earnings and price hikes. These are massive flows of capital.
On Wednesday, ADP released numbers this week showed a decline of 301,000 jobs due to Omicron and a worsening in economic conditions due to rising bond yields. The question is how much of the drop is due to Omicron which is fading, and how much is due to a slowdown in the economy which could worsen as the Fed raises rates starting in March.
The White House warned “the January jobs number will be ugly”.
Continue reading “Feb Jobs Day… “Buckle Up”” →