economy, income, interest rates, retirement

Fed raises rates, and questions, around the economy

On June 13th, 2018 the federal reserve raised interest rates 25 basis points and altered their expectation to raise rates a total of 4 times this year, compared to earlier expectation of 3 raises.

 

In his meeting with reporters to discuss fed policy, fed chair Powell stated, “Households are in good shape, and that is so important, that’s where we got into trouble before, and its often around property and housing that you see real problems emerge but we don’t see that now, and we take some solace from that.”

 

However, he also said, “Economic strength hasn’t reached everyone.”

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economy, income, interest rates, retirement

What are the risks as bond yields move higher?

Since December of 2017 bond yields for US Treasuries have moved up substantially. The increase in bond yields is having an impact on the US stock market, as well as markets around the world.

 

What is driving bond yields higher?

 

One significant driver is the Tax Cuts passed in December of 2017. The tax cuts are leading to an increase in the budget deficit and the need for additional bond issuance. More bond supply can lead to lower bond valuations and higher bond yields.

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economy, interest rates, retirement

Psychology and the Market

On Thursday February 8th 2018 the Dow dropped over 1000 points in a single day.

 

Human behavior is driven two forces, fight or flight. When facing a dramatic event we as individuals are forced to REACT to what happens. 

When looking at the market, if a person is underinvested and it goes up day after day making new highs, that person may experience FOMO… fear of missing out. They might make the decision to invest based on emotion instead of fundamentals.
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economy, income, interest rates, retirement

What do rising rates mean for investors?

In early February 2018 equity markets started to sell off. Volatility increased. On February 8th, 2018 the DJIA dropped over 1000 points.

 

Question: Why?

Answer: The repricing of risk.

 

In 2013 the economy was recovering from the Great Recession of 2008/2009 and was still fragile. A lot of economic data points showed contradictory trends. Believing the economy had sufficiently strengthened, the Federal Reserve announced it’s intention to start reducing its policy of Quantitative Easing which was put into place after the 2008 financial crisis and the Great Recession. Quantitative Easing was the government policy to buy US treasury bonds in order to keep interest rates low and support the economy.

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