Climate change, economy, environment, retirement, risk management

Global future growth… and Climate Change

A recent Bloomberg article titled “The Global Growth Hotspots of the Future Are Here” discussed an HSBC report which advises that investors need to focus on the growth of cities in the Emerging Markets. (1)

“While wealthier countries are more urbanized today, the proportion of urban to rural dwellers in emerging markets is expected to climb to 63 percent in 2050 from 50 percent now, according to the study, which draws on research by McKinsey and the United Nations.

Developing nations’ emissions are rising fast and the report predicted that their share of cumulative emissions would reach 51 percent by 2020. (2)

By 2050 some 5 billion people – more than half the world’s population – will live in emerging market cities, and account for more than half of global gross domestic product growth.

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Climate change, economy, entrepreneurship, environment, ESG, life insurance, new economy, protection, retirement, risk management, Socially Responsible Investing, SRI

Embracing the Future: An Interview with Charlotte Markward

I met Charlotte and her Husband Randy years ago at a Green Drinks in Philadelphia. It was before the days of Tesla, widespread solar power and organic food sections at the grocery store. People got together to share a beer and dream about a future that would be more sustainable. Things have changed a great deal in the past few years.

Charlotte is a graphic designer based in Philadelphia. She has agreed to share some of her experiences and insights so that we all might have an easier path to financial security.

Charlotte has been interested in supporting socially responsible investing for many years. I asked her what it means to her. Charlotte said, “For one thing it’s smart. We have a finite amount of resources and we are running out of them. To continue doing things in the old ways is to set yourself up for failure. Green investment is where the growth will be.”

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Climate change, economy, environment, risk management

Rising global temperatures can hurt global GDP

A study released by the science journal Nature makes the connection between the rise of global temperatures and the negative impact this can have on GDP around the world. In the study, titled “Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production”, researchers found that “fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries.” Meaning as temperatures rise, the effect is much greater and accelerates in ways that are potentially disastrous. (1)

One of the lead authors, Marshall Burke of Stanford’s Department of Earth System Science, calls their study “the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate.”

The study continues, “If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality.”

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Climate change, economy, environment, risk management

Climate Change, Rising Temperatures and Food Security

Increasing temperatures globally will have an impact on the economy, and especially the supply of food.

“Scientists have high confidence that global temperatures will continue to rise for decades to come, largely due to greenhouse gases produced by human activities. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which includes more than 1,300 scientists from the United States and other countries, forecasts a temperature rise of 2.5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit over the next century.” (1)

Temperature is a primary factor affecting the rate of plant development. Warmer temperatures expected with climate change and the potential for more extreme temperature events will impact plant productivity. (2)

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Climate change, economy, environment, retirement, risk management

Climate Change, Sea Level Rise and Retirement Risk

One of the oft repeated risks from climate change is the threat that comes from rising sea levels. Depending on the forecast, even in the most optimistic ones, seas are projected to rise several feet before the end of the century. With the accelerating build-up of CO2 and the rate of temperature increase (2017 being the hottest year on record), many expect dramatic sea level rise to occur much sooner than most expect. CO2 concentrations in March 2020 was 414.5 ppm, much higher compared to 411.97 ppm in March 2019. (1)

 

While people might want to buy shore property for benefits that include potential rental income, capital appreciation and personal use, they also face potential risks of hurricanes, sea level rise, etc. Some of these risks can be mitigated by purchasing flood insurance.

 

Last summer I explored the question, “if sea levels rise, what will be the impact on a clients’ net worth and portfolio?”

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Climate change, economy, new economy, risk management

Energy, Economic Trends, and Effecting Change: A Review of the Economic Superorganism

In his book “The Economic Superorganism”, Carey King outlines a novel system to organize economic decision making and to evaluate outcomes in a Climate Changed world. People are becoming increasingly aware of the consequences of climate change. In October of 2018 the UN Panel on Climate Change stated we have 12 years to halt the growth of CO2 if we hope to avoid the worst possible consequences of global warming. (1) The fossil fuel industry is the primary driver of CO2 growth.

In January 2020 the World Economic Forum held its annual gathering at Davos, Switzerland… the primary subject discussed by business and economic leaders was the impact of Climate Change and the need to manage the resulting changing economy.

“The debate on climate change is forcing businesses to respond to demands to stop carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions. While some have been slow in embracing the fight, executives at Davos highlighted that the overall views from within the business community have dramatically changed over the last decade or so, moving from denial and questioning science into complete acceptance.” (2)

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Climate change, environment

First-hand insights on Climate Change impacts in Bangladesh: An interview with Susmita Saha

Climate change continues to accelerate, affecting people’s near term expectations.

A recent World Resources Institute (WRI) study found that “147 million people will be hit by floods from rivers and coasts annually by the end of the decade, compared with 72 million people just 10 years ago.” (1)

Damages to urban property will soar from $174bn to $712bn per year. By 2050 the cost to cities will exceed $1.7 trillion.

Charlie Iceland of WRI said, “Now we’re actually seeing this increase in magnitude of the damages in real time. We’ve never seen these types of floods before.” By 2050, “the numbers will be catastrophic.”

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Climate change, economy, environment, health, new economy, retirement, risk management, Socially Responsible Investing

How Will COVID19 Potentially Affect the Climate Change Debate?

As the severity of the COVID19 pandemic became clear to leaders in China in early 2020, the CCP announced the quarantine of over 800 million people and effectively closed down the economy of China. One of the effects of this shutdown was a dramatic drop in carbon emissions and air pollution.

Paul Monks, professor of air pollution at the University of Leicester, predicted there will be important lessons to learn. “We are now, inadvertently, conducting the largest-scale experiment ever seen,” he said. “Are we looking at what we might see in the future if we can move to a low-carbon economy? Not to denigrate the loss of life, but this might give us some hope from something terrible. To see what can be achieved.” (1)

“What I think will come out of this is a realization – because we are forced to – that there is considerable potential to change working practices and lifestyles. This challenges us in the future to think, do we really need to drive our car there or burn fuel for that,” said Monk.

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Climate change, economy, environment, ESG, risk management, Socially Responsible Investing, SRI

US intelligence agencies warn about managing risks in a climate changed world

A recent report by the US national intelligence agencies raised the issue of Climate Change and the impact they expect it to have on global stability.

“The nation’s intelligence agencies are warning, in the annual Worldwide Threat Assessment, of global instability if climate change continues unabated, according to a report submitted for a hearing Tuesday before the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.”

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Climate change, economy, environment, ESG, retirement, risk management, Socially Responsible Investing, SRI

Climate Concerns Rise, but Energy Sector is Fighting Back…

In the past year Climate Change has become a focus of central concern for people worldwide. Warnings have been issued by IPCC that we need to collectively and drastically reduce our use of fossil fuels within 10 years in order to avoid the worst impacts of a rise in temperatures above 1.5 degrees.

Institutions are joining in the demand for change.

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