Blog

charitable giving, life insurance, Taxes

Creating Social Impact Through Giving

James Cox

Every day millions are helped to improve their lives due to the generosity of others. As a community we each have a stake in the success of every individual, every family. Many organizations that make massive positive contributions are struggling due to cutbacks in government supports.

We as stakeholders in American society have a responsibility to give back and help those less fortunate. A recent example of this ethos:

“Northwestern University received a $480 million gift, a record for the Illinois school, from alumni Patrick and Shirley Ryan and their family.

Continue reading “Creating Social Impact Through Giving” →
income, inflation, retirement, risk management

Closing the Retirement Savings Gap

James Cox

A new report from World Economic Forum shows that retirees could outlive their savings by a decade or more due to higher life expectancy. “Women should prepare to bear the brunt of such shortfalls, going without retirement savings for at least two years longer than their male counterparts.” (3)

“The size of the gap is such that it requires action,’ says report co-author Han Yik. (1)

The report shows men in the US have a retirement savings gap of 8.3 years. The report shows that women in the US have an average 10.9 year gap between what they have saved and what they will require due to increased longevity.

Continue reading “Closing the Retirement Savings Gap” →
Climate change, environment, ESG, risk management, Socially Responsible Investing, SRI, Veganism

Socially Responsible Investing Grows

James Cox

“Integrity is the essence of everything successful” -Buckminster Fuller

One of the benefits of the information age is the ability to make rational judgements about companies that you invest in. To the degree that a company fails to meet an investors expectations of what is acceptable, a company or industry becomes un-investable.

“Sustainable, responsible and impact investing (SRI) is an investment discipline that considers environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) criteria to generate long-term competitive financial returns and positive societal impact.” (1)

A recent study by the US Sustainable Investment Finance Foundation revealed the tremendous growth in sustainable investing.

Continue reading “Socially Responsible Investing Grows” →
income, retirement, risk management

How to Guarantee Retirement?

James Cox

Several years ago, I read a post on LinkedIn which sounded the alarm bells that the “time is running out” for your retirement account.

I found it offensive and in poor taste, playing on the fears of the public at large. Throughout most of 2022 and 2023 there has been a palatable undercurrent of fear in the market… on the part of investors, on the part of money managers, on the part of economists… Inflation rocketing higher, talk of asset bubbles left and right, issues around hiring and employment, falling consumer sentiment, and all of these leading to a slowing in the economy.

The 8% pullback in September 2023 in the market has reinforced that fear for some.

There is no doubt that the current environment is challenging when it comes to managing investments and making suitable choices.

Continue reading “How to Guarantee Retirement?” →
Climate change, environment, ESG, retirement, risk management, Socially Responsible Investing, SRI

What Role Do Moral Values Play in Investment Selection?

James Cox

As a financial advisor, I am constantly approached by mutual fund and ETF wholesalers who are selling their investment vehicles. Yesterday I was approached by a representative who offered a vehicle that invested and looked at company fundamentals in a way that I believe is important. Before we talked, I asked if these were funds that invest based on sustainable or ESG (environmental, social, and governance) criteria.

He said, “These funds rank very highly based on ESG ratings.” And when I looked at the Morningstar ratings, they did. However, when I dug deeper several red flags jumped out at me. First, nowhere on the fund prospectus do they mention using screening for sustainability or ESG concerns. The second red flag was when I looked at existing holdings… their top holding is one of the largest US oil companies.

This to me is non-negotiable.

Continue reading “What Role Do Moral Values Play in Investment Selection?” →
health, life insurance, protection, risk management

A few life lessons…

James Cox

In the past few months, I have seen several friends pass away…

I have seen several people in my circle struggle with illness and disability…

All are under the age of 50. None of them planned on what happened to them.

None of them planned on the impact it would have on those around them.
Life is not a straight line.
We all are forced to deal with situations that are beyond our control.

Continue reading “A few life lessons…” →
Climate change, environment, Veganism

How to Reduce Your Carbon Footprint

James Cox

People are becoming increasingly aware of the consequences of climate change. In October of 2018 the UN Panel on Climate Change stated we have 12 years to halt the growth of CO2 if we hope to avoid the worst possible consequences of global warming. (1) Yet following the shutdown of the global economy in 2020, the release of CO2 has accelerated. “In 2021 global energy-related CO2 emissions are projected to rebound and grow by 4.8% as demand for coal, oil and gas rebounds with the economy. The increase of over 1 500 Mt CO2 would be the largest single increase since the carbon-intensive economic recovery from the global financial crisis more than a decade ago, it leaves global emissions in 2021 around 400 Mt CO2, or 1.2%, below the 2019 peak.” (2)

The concentration of CO2 (carbon dioxide) and methane are heating the atmosphere. Atmospheric CO2 in June 2023 stands at 424/ppm… In June 2021 it stood at 418/ppm. In June 2020 the figure stood at 416/ppm. Ten years ago, in June 2011, the measure stood at 390/ppm. (3) The rate of change is accelerating…

Continue reading “How to Reduce Your Carbon Footprint” →
Climate change, environment, risk management, Socially Responsible Investing, SRI

Greta Thunberg, David Hume, “State of Nature” and Climate Change

James Cox

The climate crisis is worsening…

June 2024 was the hottest month globally in recorded history. (6)

In a speech to the Austrian World Summit in June 2021, Greta Thunberg called out global leaders for their inaction. (1)

“During this time, more and more people around the world have woken up to the climate and ecological crisis, putting more and more pressure on you, the people in power. Eventually, the public pressure was too much and you had the world’s eyes on you. So you started to act…

Not acting as in taking climate action, but acting as in role playing, playing politics, playing with words and playing with our future, pretending to take responsibility, acting as saviors as you try to convince us that things are being taken care of.

Meanwhile the gap between your rhetoric and reality keeps growing wider and wider, and since the level of awareness is so low, you almost get away with it.”

Greta Thunberg raises a crucial issue that needs to be addressed for humanity to overcome the climate crisis…

Continue reading “Greta Thunberg, David Hume, “State of Nature” and Climate Change” →
entrepreneurship, key man insurance, protection, risk management

Protecting your business, and your legacy

James Cox

Most business owners, CEOs and executives are laser focused on driving their business or enterprise towards success. They are responsible for preserving and expanding sales and revenue. They are responsible for hiring and firing. They are responsible to investors and stakeholders to manage risk and ensure success. They handle client relationships, research and development, marketing and IT… As leaders they wear many hats and carry a lot of weight on their shoulders.

But what happens when a CEO or leader within a company passes away? What is the impact on the business and the employees who depend on that business for their livelihood?

Continue reading “Protecting your business, and your legacy” →
Climate change, entrepreneurship, new economy

‘Be the change that you wish to see in the world’: A Speech to Cooperative Impact 2015, Princeton 5/14/2015

James Cox

Several years ago, I was asked to give an opening keynote speech to a gathering of social innovation entrepreneurs. The message I think is one that continues to be relevant…

We are on the edge of the greatest entrepreneurial revolution in the history of mankind.

The internet, the “cloud”, on-demand shipping, social media, Linked In… All are changing how we relate to each other economically and socially.

Continue reading “‘Be the change that you wish to see in the world’: A Speech to Cooperative Impact 2015, Princeton 5/14/2015” →
inflation, interest rates, retirement, risk management

2023 Inflation and Parallels to the Seventies

James Cox

My most vivid memory of the Seventies is sitting in the car with my siblings and parents in a mall parking lot the week before Christmas and my mother crying because they couldn’t afford presents and had to file bankruptcy. For a 12-year-old it made the challenges of real life… real.

The seventies were a traumatic time for many Americans… the end of the Vietnam war, the political chaos of Watergate and Nixon, the oil embargo, gas rationing throughout the decade, the suffocation of unions, the loss of jobs and industries as Japan and South Korea became exporters. Economic instability was an ever-present cloud.

Moving in waves through the decade, the economy suffered from bouts of inflation and deflation. It made policy decision-making challenging at best… boost the economy to keep it from slowing down, or is the economy running too hot?

When you drill down one sees many similarities between conditions that led to the “stagflation of the 1970s” and the situation we find ourselves in today.

Continue reading “2023 Inflation and Parallels to the Seventies” →
charitable giving, Climate change, entrepreneurship, life insurance, new economy, protection, Socially Responsible Investing, SRI

Embracing the Future: An Interview with Charlotte Markward

James Cox

I met Charlotte and her Husband Randy years ago at a Green Drinks in Philadelphia. It was before the days of Tesla, widespread solar power and organic food sections at the grocery store. People got together to share a beer and dream about a future that would be more sustainable. Things have changed a great deal in the past few years.

Charlotte is a graphic designer based in Philadelphia. She has agreed to share some of her experiences and insights so that we all might have an easier path to financial security.

Charlotte has been interested in supporting socially responsible investing for many years. I asked her what it means to her. Charlotte said, “For one thing it’s smart. We have a finite amount of resources and we are running out of them. To continue doing things in the old ways is to set yourself up for failure. Green investment is where the growth will be.”

Continue reading “Embracing the Future: An Interview with Charlotte Markward” →
inflation, interest rates, risk management

Inflation and Jobs, May 2023

James Cox

On Weds. May 10th Core inflation held steady at 5.5% y/y. (2) Core inflation excludes the volatile food and energy components.

“It’s a head fake,” said Vincent Reinhart at Dreyfus & Mellon. (1)

From the Fed’s vantage point, “You better be sure when you stop, you’re not going to look back and regret it just a couple months later,” Reinhart said. The Fed really needs to be confident that inflation “is headed back to 2%. This is just another drop in the ocean.”

Continue reading “Inflation and Jobs, May 2023” →
Climate change, ESG, retirement, risk management, Socially Responsible Investing, SRI

A Unique Investment Approach

James Cox

For the past 15 years I have developed my investment practice around a core thesis…

“Do your investments match your values?”

While this question can pull people in many varied directions, the underlying truth is that investors are interested in reducing their risks, and thereby improving their performance. Many people recognize that investment markets tend to underappreciate the impacts companies have on society and the environment.

While the planet is undergoing profound challenges due to climate change, investment professionals tend to not appreciate the connections to fossil fuel companies and their role in the crisis. Meanwhile, many investors of all age brackets do see the connection and are demanding better options for their investments. (1)

My work focuses on helping clients divest from fossil fuel companies, and the companies that support climate destruction. In doing so my goal is 3-fold; 1) to avoid the risks associated with sunken assets in the fossil fuel industry, 2) invest in companies that benefit from the economy becoming “decarbonized”, and 3) managing macroeconomic risk that is generated by the transition. This approach has typically outperformed comparable indexes over the past 10 years.

Continue reading “A Unique Investment Approach” →
AI, new economy, risk management

AI and the New Labor Economy

James Cox

I have been writing for years about the impact the AI will have on the economy, and especially on workers. Recent advances have led to many commentators remark that…

“The death of big tech as a leader of growth and earnings has been grossly exaggerated. That was the message from Surveillance guests today ahead of results from Alphabet Inc. and Microsoft Corp., especially given the pace and scope of recent technological advancements. (1)

Neuberger Berman’s Charles Kantor says artificial intelligence hasn’t been fully priced into the valuations of tech companies.

Continue reading “AI and the New Labor Economy” →
Climate change, environment, ESG, retirement, risk management, Socially Responsible Investing, SRI, Veganism

Veganism and Climate Change

James Cox

It is becoming increasing clear that humankind is driving climate change. Increasing temperatures, disastrous weather, and sea level rise are the result of rapidly rising levels of CO2 and methane.

Recent UN reports make clear that we need to take action immediately.

“We are at a crossroads. The decisions we make now can secure a livable future. We have the tools and know-how required to limit warming,” said IPCC Chair Hoesung Lee. (1)

“Climate change is the result of more than a century of unsustainable energy and land use, lifestyles and patterns of consumption and production,” said IPCC Working Group III Co-Chair Jim Skea. 

A recent UN report specifically outlined the impact that factory farms and animal agriculture is having on the environment.

“What we eat, and how that food is produced, affects our health but also the environment. Food needs to be grown and processed, transported, distributed, prepared, consumed, and sometimes disposed of. Each of these steps creates greenhouse gases that trap the sun’s heat and contribute to climate change. About a third of all human-caused greenhouse gas emissions is linked to food.” (2)
 

Continue reading “Veganism and Climate Change” →
income, interest rates, retirement, risk management

January 2023 Jobs Day

James Cox

After a year of the Fed raising rates, bubbles deflating and inflation surging to levels last seen in the 1980s, economists and investors are girding themselves for 2023. The first signpost of where the economy is headed was the January Jobs report on 1/6/2023.

Will the employment market continue its strong run of reports? Is the economy slowing? Will the Fed be forced to continue hiking or, as markets hope, will they start cutting rates?

Expectations are for the Fed to continue hiking rates to a level above 5%; currently rates are 4.25%.

Continue reading “January 2023 Jobs Day“ →
income, interest rates, retirement, risk management

Echoes of Jackson Hole… Sept jobs day, CPI, and the Fed

James Cox

On August 26th Fed Chair Jerome Powell addressed economists and decision-makers at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole conference. His remarks had been anticipated for months. The inflation raging through the economy and repeated Fed rate hikes have deflated some of the bubbles we saw at the start of 2022.

The question is, will the Fed slow its rate hikes and allow the economy to have a “soft landing” or will the Fed keep raising rates potentially crashing the economy…

Powell left no doubt about the path forward.

Continue reading “Echoes of Jackson Hole… Sept jobs day, CPI, and the Fed” →
interest rates, retirement, risk management

August Jobs Day

James Cox

In the 1970s the Fed led by Chair Arthur Burns shifted policy from hiking rates to fight inflation to cutting rates to fight recession. The result of this policy change was inflation growth slowed for a few months but then reaccelerated to higher levels causing more pain, more rate hikes and more recessions.

“This is the prospect of a flip-flopping Fed…” injected Jon Ferro of Bloomberg. (1)

“People are looking for the fed to cut as soon as they stop raising rates in order to counter a slowing economy” adds Lisa Abramowicz

Continue reading “August Jobs Day” →
income, protection, retirement, risk management, Taxes

Strategies to Help Avoid Running Out of Money in Retirement

James Cox

A recent study by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College found that “many younger baby boomers and members of subsequent generations who don’t have access to a traditional pension could outlive the funds in their 401(k) accounts.” (1)

In the 1980s 401k plans began to replace pension plans in the workplace. Workers became responsible for accumulating their own retirement savings. Of workers born in 1947, 52% had pensions. By comparison workers born only 10 years later, only 21% had pensions.

The study compared retiree spending for people who had pensions and those who only had a 401k. They found that “retirees with pensions often didn’t spend their savings at all. In fact, many saw their nest eggs continue to grow after they stopped working.”

Continue reading “Strategies to Help Avoid Running Out of Money in Retirement” →
interest rates, retirement, risk management

July Jobs Day–“Immense amount of uncertainty going forward.”

James Cox

Markets are struggling to grasp the realities of the new economic dynamics. Inflation is expected to be announced next week at 8.8% while unemployment is only 3.6%, near post-pandemic lows. In addition, second quarter GDP is projected to be negative 2.1% according to the Atlanta Fed. The first quarter was negative 1%. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth signify a recession.

Barry Ritholtz of Bloomberg pronounced “we have never been in a recession without rising unemployment”

While top line inflation is 8.8%, core inflation (without food and fuel) is only 6%, still far above the Fed’s 2% target.

However, says Tom Keene of Bloomberg, “We are not living core inflation… we are living almost double-digit headline inflation and it hurts.” (1)

The estimate is for 268k new jobs to have been created in June. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 3.6%. Jobs creation in May was 390k.

Continue reading “July Jobs Day–“Immense amount of uncertainty going forward.”” →
interest rates, retirement, risk management

“The Menace of Inflation”: Inflation in Perspective

James Cox

In May 1974 Fed Chairman Arthur Burns gave a commencement speech to Illinois College. The speech was titled “The Menace of Inflation”.

At this point in the 1970s the nation had been struggling with high inflation for four long years… For perspective, we have been only dealing with high and rising inflation for one year so far. His voice offers a view of what to expect in the years to come.

“The gravity of our current inflationary problem can hardly be overestimated. Except for a brief period at the end of WW2, prices in the United States have of late been rising faster than in any other peacetime period of our history. If past experience is any guide, the future of our country is in jeopardy. No country that I know of has been able to maintain widespread economic prosperity once inflation got out of hand. And the unhappy consequences are by no means solely of an economic character. If long continued, inflation at anything like the present rate would threaten the very foundations of our society.” (1)

Continue reading ““The Menace of Inflation”: Inflation in Perspective” →
life insurance, protection

Job Change, Group Life Insurance and Russian Roulette

James Cox

In the United States, there is a huge number of households which are unprotected or under protected by Life Insurance. In a recent LIMRA study 7 in 10 households believe would be in serious financial distress if an adult in the household passed away. (1)

37 million households have no life insurance.
Another 33 million households do not have sufficient life insurance to count themselves as protected.

One vehicle that many people rely upon for protection is Group Life Insurance. When offered as a company benefit, it can inexpensively provide protection for many people… but it only does so while the insured works for the company.

Currently, 1 in 5 people are only covered by Group Life Insurance.

The challenge is that recent employment trends show that people are changing jobs more often than in past years. (2)

Continue reading “Job Change, Group Life Insurance and Russian Roulette” →
AI, diversity, entrepreneurship, new economy, risk management

Diversity Matters… Especially In Business

James Cox

Even before the economic crisis wrought by the Coronavirus, the economy is changing at a rapid pace. Companies in many sectors that have been pillars of the economy have fallen on hard times. Companies that were leaders in industrial America have seen their market cap fall by 2/3rds in the past year. Leaders in retail have closed hundreds of stores and laid off thousands of people. Even technology companies that started off strong in the past 10 years have suffered setbacks in the past year due to corporate governance issues.

As technology advances, the challenge for businesses to stay competitive becomes amplified. In the last 5 years, advances in robotics and AI (Artificial Intelligence) have significantly added to the bottom line of companies. That pace of change seems to be accelerating. But even as technology expands its importance, what will human workforce need to look like.

Continue reading “Diversity Matters… Especially In Business” →
Climate change, environment, ESG, risk management, Socially Responsible Investing, SRI

Energy, Economic Trends, and Effecting Change: A Review of the Economic Superorganism

James Cox

In his book “The Economic Superorganism”, Carey King outlines a novel system to organize economic decision making and to evaluate outcomes in a Climate Changed world. People are becoming increasingly aware of the consequences of climate change. In October of 2018 the IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) stated we have 12 years to halt the growth of CO2 if we hope to avoid the worst possible consequences of global warming. (1) The fossil fuel industry is the primary driver of CO2 growth.

In the February 2022 update of the IPCC report stated, “This report is a dire warning about the consequences of inaction,” said Hoesung Lee, Chair of the IPCC. “It shows that climate change is a grave and mounting threat to our wellbeing and a healthy planet. Our actions today will shape how people adapt and nature responds to increasing climate risks.” (4)

“The world faces unavoidable multiple climate hazards over the next two decades with global warming of 1.5°C (2.7°F). Even temporarily exceeding this warming level will result in additional severe impacts, some of which will be irreversible. People and ecosystems least able to cope are being hardest hit, said scientists.”

Continue reading “Energy, Economic Trends, and Effecting Change: A Review of the Economic Superorganism” →
health, life insurance, protection, risk management

Diet, health, and the financial impact on life insurance

James Cox

The purpose of life insurance is to manage risk. Individuals and families need protection in the event a primary bread winner passes away.

Several factors drive what life insurance costs for an individual. Women tend to live longer, so their cost for life insurance is lower than it is for men. The healthier a person is, the less expensive it is for them to obtain life insurance. People who smoke pay significantly more for life insurance.

Each person’s health situation is unique. Part of the process of obtaining life insurance is to collect medical samples for testing. The underwriter reviews records from your doctors over the past 5 years. They also examine driving records.

Once all of the information is collected the underwriter evaluates the data at hand and assigns the insured person a health rating. The better the rating, the lower the premium you pay. 

So how much of an impact do health issues have on a person’s ability to afford life insurance? 

Continue reading “Diet, health, and the financial impact on life insurance” →
income, interest rates, retirement, risk management

Recession Risks Rise: a survey

James Cox

Over the past few months several institutional investors have offered insights on how the markets were evolving given a laundry list of changing conditions, including rising inflation, a change in Fed policy to raise rates, energy prices, and slowing world growth…

In January 2022 Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital was interviewed on Bloomberg by Erik Schatzker. Marks gave his view of how market condition were changing at the start of 2022 and how investors could adjust. Schatzker asked Marks, “are you worried about inflation?” (1)

“I am worried. This is excessive. Everyone wants a little inflation. For years central banks have been trying to generate inflation and haven’t been able to do so. Excessive inflation is not desirable.

Higher inflation means higher interest rates and higher rates mean lower asset prices, and that’s what’s going on right now.”

Continue reading “Recession Risks Rise: a survey” →
Climate change, environment

First Hand Insights on Climate Change Impacts in Bangladesh: An interview with Susmita Saha

James Cox

This is an updated reprint of a 2016 interview.

In February 2022 the IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) released a dire warning. (1) “This report is a dire warning about the consequences of inaction,” said Hoesung Lee, Chair of the IPCC. “It shows that climate change is a grave and mounting threat to our wellbeing and a healthy planet. Our actions today will shape how people adapt and nature responds to increasing climate risks.”

“The world faces unavoidable multiple climate hazards over the next two decades with global warming of 1.5°C (2.7°F). Even temporarily exceeding this warming level will result in additional severe impacts, some of which will be irreversible. People and ecosystems least able to cope are being hardest hit, said scientists.”

This nightmare is becoming all too real. In April 2022 temperatures on the Indian subcontinent have reached new highs well before the start of the summer season. (2) “Temperatures in India remain high amid ongoing heat waves that have plagued the country with dry, sweltering weather since early spring. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) stated that its March maximum temperatures were the highest in nearly a century and a quarter, and rainfall was only running about a quarter to a third of normal.”

Continue reading “First Hand Insights on Climate Change Impacts in Bangladesh: An interview with Susmita Saha” →
interest rates, retirement, risk management

Housing Crisis 2.0

James Cox

In 2008-2009 the nation was struck by a crisis in the mortgage credit markets that had repercussions for the next 15 years. The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) caused many people to lose their house or their job, or both. Many have yet to fully recover.

Fast forward to 2020-2022 and the housing situation in the United States is very different… Housing prices are rapidly rising and mortgage rates are headed higher as the Fed begins to raise rates and tighten financial conditions in an effort to fight inflation. Since WW2 housing has been a bastion of wealth building for the middle and working class. As an asset people were able to benefit from its appreciation and stability over time. Contrast this to the fact that many in the middle or working class have very little saved in their 401ks compared to the wealthier 10% of society; The wealthiest 10% own 89% of stocks, nearly $36 trillion. (1)

As housing prices and mortgage rates rise, younger buyers who are starting out in life are increasingly being priced out of the market. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey takes a monthly snapshot of buying conditions for housing. The February 2022 figure came in at 36, a 42 year low. By way of comparison, the survey printed 70 in January 2020 and 56 in 2008 during the GFC.

So, the question is why are housing prices, as well as rents, continuing to rise with consumers largely sidelined?

Continue reading “Housing Crisis 2.0” →
Climate change, environment, ESG, retirement, risk management, Socially Responsible Investing, SRI

How Will COVID19 Potentially Affect the Climate Change Debate?

James Cox

As the severity of the COVID19 pandemic became clear to leaders in China in early 2020, the Chinese Communist Party announced the quarantine of over 800 million people and effectively closed down the economy of China. One of the effects of this shutdown was a dramatic drop in carbon emissions and air pollution.

Paul Monks, professor of air pollution at the University of Leicester, predicted there will be important lessons to learn. “We are now, inadvertently, conducting the largest-scale experiment ever seen,” he said. “Are we looking at what we might see in the future if we can move to a low-carbon economy? Not to denigrate the loss of life, but this might give us some hope from something terrible. To see what can be achieved.” (1)

“What I think will come out of this is a realization – because we are forced to – that there is considerable potential to change working practices and lifestyles. This challenges us in the future to think, do we really need to drive our car there or burn fuel for that,” said Monk.

Continue reading “How Will COVID19 Potentially Affect the Climate Change Debate?” →
income, interest rates, retirement, risk management

“The Fed is going to break things…”

James Cox

In the last week of March 2022, the Federal Reserve revealed a regime change in their policy. The Fed moved from balancing jobs and inflation and being patient to a new policy of aggressively raising rates in order to fight inflation, regardless of its impact on the economy.

On March 16, 2022 the Fed raised rates for the first time in several years 25bps. The move was well broadcast and expected by markets for many months. Many critics of the Fed have complained the Fed has waited too long to raise rates. In 2020 the Fed lowered rates and engaged in massive quantitative easing (“QE”) in order to pull the economy out of the recession that resulted from the COVID shutdown.

On Monday March 20, 2022, Chair Powell appeared at the NABE (National Association for Business Economics) conference; his comments revealed a clear change in priorities at the Fed, and some insight to policy going forward. (1) In his statement he shares that “Supply chains are healing, but we are now seeing new COVID related supply disruption from China. The healing will come in time as the world settles into a new normal, but the timing and scope of that relief are highly uncertain. In the meantime, the Fed will be focused on trying to reduce price pressures.

As the magnitude and persistence of inflation became more clear at the end of 2021, the FOMC pivoted to less accommodative monetary policy. I believe these policy actions, and those to come, will help bring inflation down to 2% over the next 3 years.“

Continue reading ““The Fed is going to break things…”” →
Climate change, environment, ESG, retirement, risk management, Socially Responsible Investing, SRI

Mixed Economic Signals, Debt Issues and Fossil Fuel Companies

James Cox

Several years ago, Bloomberg Businessweek did a bio pic on Hank Paulson, Bush’s Treasury secretary who served during the Financial Crisis of 2008. After reviewing the events that led to the Crisis, connecting the dots, and seeing the impact of what happened, Paulson had this to say at the end of the film…

“The whole reason I’m doing this, is not because I want to look back, but because I have increasingly come to the view that it’s important that there be a historical record for those that come after me, so we don’t replay this movie all over again.” (1)

Fast-forward to November 2019, and we saw many positive and negative conditions developing that raised questions about the stock market and the health of the US economy.

Since the summer of 2019 financial conditions have noticeably weakened as the trade war with China has started having a significant economic impact. American and Chinese officials have spoken publicly that progress is being made. Hopes of a trade deal had driven equity markets higher, but as of December 2019 there is still no deal.

The trade war had caused a real decline in business investment and optimism. A CFO survey in the Fall of 2019 showed, “U.S. business optimism dropped this quarter to its lowest level in three years, according to third-quarter results from the Duke University/CFO Global Business Outlook. A majority of CFOs expect a recession to start before the presidential election.” (2)

This lack of business confidence had slowed growth in the economy and motivated the Fed to cut interest rates several times this year. This was all before COVID crippled the economy in the Spring of 2020…

Continue reading “Mixed Economic Signals, Debt Issues and Fossil Fuel Companies” →
income, retirement

First Steps to Retirement Planning

James Cox

Many people are paralyzed into inaction when they start thinking about the challenge of planning for retirement. The truth is there are a few first steps anyone can take on their own to improve their chances for success.

A first step is to determine how much income you can expect to receive from social security. In years past SSA would mail annual statements for people to see their expected benefits. Things have changed… go to google and search for “my social security”. You will create an account and through this account be able to determine your numbers.

Continue reading “First Steps to Retirement Planning” →
charitable giving, life insurance, protection, Taxes

A beloved relative has passed away and left me an inheritance… What should I do?

James Cox

I have had several clients experience the passing of a beloved family member in the past 6 months. All ages, all walks of life. To a person they struggle with the desire to have their father or spouse or daughter back with them again, and how to move forward without them.

I have lost both of my parents; my mother passed away at 42 from lung cancer. I know the pain they suffer. Looking back, her illness and death really hurt my father and younger brother financially. She didn’t have life insurance. Due to the illness many of the family’s assets were exhausted. My father and brother did the best that they could do, but it was a difficult journey.

Continue reading “A beloved relative has passed away and left me an inheritance… What should I do?” →
interest rates, retirement, risk management

March Jobs Day – “There is a huge fog that is blanketing future economic outlooks.”

James Cox

The geopolitical crisis of the past month has changed the global economic roadmap ahead. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted flows of commodities and driven up prices stoking already high inflation. As a result…

Tom Keene points out “We are not focused on payrolls…” (1)

March 4, 2022 was the release of the jobs report for February. The estimate for new jobs is for 421k, and a 3.9% unemployment rate.

Continue reading “March Jobs Day – “There is a huge fog that is blanketing future economic outlooks.”” →
Climate change, environment, risk management, Socially Responsible Investing, SRI

“We are talking about a genuine existential issue”: An interview with Ian Dunlop, Sustainability Consultant based in Australia

James Cox

This article is an update from an interview in 2016 with more recent comments from Ian Dunlop and James Cox.

Ian Dunlop’s life has been spent in the center of the carbon economy and the climate change debate.

His bio from LinkedIn chronicles his background…

Ian Dunlop has wide experience in energy resources, infrastructure, and international business, for many years on the international staff of Royal Dutch Shell. He has worked at senior level in oil, gas and coal exploration and production, in scenario and long-term energy planning, competition reform and privatization. He chaired the Australian Coal Associations in 1987-88. From 1998-2000 he chaired the Australian Greenhouse Office Experts Group on Emissions Trading which developed the first emissions trading system design for Australia. From 1997 to 2001 he was CEO of the Australian Institute of Company Directors. Ian has a particular interest in the interaction of corporate governance, corporate responsibility and sustainability. An engineer from the University of Cambridge (UK), MA Mechanical Sciences, he is a Fellow of the Australian Institute of Company Directors, the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy and the Energy Institute (UK), and a Member of the Society of Petroleum Engineers of AIME (USA). He is Chairman of Safe Climate Australia, a Director of Australia 21, Deputy Convenor of the Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil, a Fellow of the Centre for Policy Development, a Member of The Club of Rome and a member of Mikhail Gorbachev’s Climate Change Task Force. He advises and writes extensively on governance, climate change, energy and sustainability.

He grew up in the middle of the oil and coal business, and over the years he has come to his own conclusions about climate change and the impact it will have on humanity’s future. I interviewed him mid-May 2016 to learn more. I wanted to learn more about what can be done about climate change, what the role of business is, and what the impact on the economy is.

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Climate change, retirement, risk management

Ukraine, the Global Framework and Climate

James Cox

On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. A number of times today I heard the phrase, “this changes things fundamentally.” The question is what does it change and how do we move forward? In particular, what does this mean for the climate crisis?

The climate crisis requires a level of international cooperation that has never been seen. The breakdown of the framework that came out of Glasgow and COP26 is the latest example of the challenge we face.

Events in Ukraine underscore deeper systemic issues that we need to address in order to be effective on an international scale.

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protection, retirement, risk management

How to Deal with Being Laid Off: 5 Strategies To Prepare For Job Change

James Cox

Each day we read reports that the economy is booming.

“U.S. housing and consumer are strong” (1)

“Factory output is poised to speed up.”

“Stronger global growth expectations and a weaker dollar should help.”

“The stock market hits record highs…”

With that being the case, you might find it surprising that several large corporations have recently announced they will be laying off large numbers of employees, especially managers. (2)

Companies which are facing an increasingly tough business environment are being forced to “slash costs and stabilize”. (3) Some companies find themselves at a disadvantage because of the move away from fossil fuels. (4) Some companies have failed to innovate in order to remain competitive. Some companies have to carry legacy costs that newer competitors, especially those in the technology or e-commerce space do not have. Many companies are struggling to keep up with commodity and wage costs that are rising with inflation.

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income, retirement, Taxes

RMD: What are the Risks and How Can We Address Them?

James Cox

Several recent studies show peoples number one fear is running out of money during retirement. (1)

To prepare us for retirement the IRS gives workers the ability to set up qualified accounts in order to save for retirement and get tax deferred growth. By deferring taxes money saved can grow faster. You put money away, not paying taxes now, but paying taxes on the money when you pull it out during retirement.

When you get to retirement, you can start pulling money from your account. In the past it has been considered good practice to not draw more than 4% from an account during retirement in order to make sure you don’t outlive your money. In the past bond yields have been 5-7% and that makes a 4% draw down possible. Now over the past 5 years bond yields have been around 2-3% and because many retirees rely on bonds to deliver income to their portfolio, many economists and advisors have been advising clients to withdraw less from their IRAs; this is so retirees don’t run out of money when they are older.

Now what if I told you there was a tax law that requires you to draw more income from your account, without any consideration for how long you or your spouse will live, and without regard for whether you will run out of money or not.

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interest rates, retirement, risk management

Feb Jobs Day… “Buckle Up”

James Cox

It has been a turbulent week…

Price of gasoline rose to the highest since 2014 at $3.43/gallon. Brent crude is at $93 per barrel.

Inflation number to be released next week is expected to rise to 7.3%, from 7.1% in January

On Thursday, the ECB announced it would pull back from QE faster than expected after their meeting on 2/3/22. ECB pivoted away from their policy of “lower rates for longer”. As a result, Italian yields are up dramatically. Yields of Italian bonds started the week at 1.2%… by Friday yields were over 1.7%. Negative yielding debt is at lowest level since 2018.

At a meeting in the UK, Bank of England Governor Bailey called on unions to hold off on demands for pay increases. Union officials called it “a sick joke”.

In equity markets Facebook (Meta) fell 25% and lost over $200billion in value overnight due to slower growth. The next day Amazon rose 15% and gained over $150billion in value on earnings and price hikes. These are massive flows of capital.

On Wednesday, ADP released numbers this week showed a decline of 301,000 jobs due to Omicron and a worsening in economic conditions due to rising bond yields. The question is how much of the drop is due to Omicron which is fading, and how much is due to a slowdown in the economy which could worsen as the Fed raises rates starting in March.

The White House warned “the January jobs number will be ugly”.

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interest rates, retirement, risk management

What do rising rates mean for investors? In 2018, in 2020… and today in 2022

James Cox

In January of 2022 markets sold off as investors came to grips with the realization that the Fed was committed to end Quantitative Easing (QE), raise rates by March of 2022, and begin selling assets from its balance sheet. After years of “easy money” monetary policy, the Fed had been forced to change direction due to rising inflation worries. (1)

“The market is significantly overvalued, which works okay when interest rates are at record lows,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “But when rates rise, valuations become a real issue, so the market is adjusting to the new interest rate reality.”

To understand how this affects your portfolio and retirement savings a bit of historical context can be helpful.

So first… a history lesson…

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entrepreneurship, new economy, retirement, risk management

The Work of Nations: 30 Years On…

James Cox

When I first read “The Work of Nations” by Robert Reich in the mid-1990s I had almost no background in macroeconomics. (1) But in reading it, Reich was able to effectively describe how radically the economic system was changing as a result of Globalization. Reich at the time was Bill Clinton’s Secretary of Labor and a key member of his economic team.

As context, China’s economy in 1991 was $400 billion compared to $6,174 billion for the US. China entered the global trade organizations in 1992. Today China’s economy is $15.6 trillion compared to $23 trillion for the US for 2021. (11)

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Climate change, diversity, environment, ESG, risk management, Socially Responsible Investing, SRI

What is Socially Responsible Investing?

James Cox

I have recently had several people ask me about SRI. What is it? Why does it matter?

The first thing to understand is SRI means different things to different people. Several years ago I attended a gathering of advisors focused on sustainability at the Bloomberg headquarters in NYC. I talked to many of the 300 attendees and what I found was every single person had a different interpretation of what SRI meant.

Some focused on promoting clean energy, some focused on workers issues and inequality, some focused on climate change, some look to exclude alcohol and tobacco, others focused on micro lending. Each focus is unique and approaches the challenge of investing with different assumptions.

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interest rates, retirement, risk management

Jobs Friday: December 2021

James Cox

As a financial advisor and someone who loves the study of economics, “Jobs Friday” is the highlight of my month. It is a signpost of where the economy has been for the past month or two, as well as giving clues about where it is headed in the coming month. Information derived from the Jobs Report posted by the US Dept of Labor is used by the Federal Reserve to judge, manage, and adjust monetary policy. Politicians on both sides use the information to justify and drive fiscal policy.

For this month’s report the expectation was for the economy to have created 550,000 new jobs. One factor going into the jobs report that is a concern is ‘how many people are going to come back into the labor market?’ Currently, economists estimate that nearly 8 million people are still out of the labor force, having left at the beginning of the COVID pandemic in February 2020. (3)

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health, life insurance, protection, risk management

Deaths of Despair

James Cox

In recent months companies at the center of the Opioid Crisis have been fighting in court about the roles they played in the epidemic that has affected millions of Americans. The over prescription of highly addictive drugs has had severe impacts on families, businesses, and the economy. (1) But the Opioid Crisis is only part of a much larger problem facing American Society.

In March of 2017 a landmark study was released connecting opioid abuse, financial insecurity, and death rates in the United States. The information is sobering and should be the focus of policy changes at all levels of government.

A recent study by Princeton Professors Anne Case and Angus Deaton titled, “Mortality and morbidity in the 21st century,” shows the connection between the rising mortality rates of the middle class in the US and “a measurable deterioration in economic and social wellbeing”. (2)

This deterioration has not suddenly developed. Rather, “Case and Deaton document an accumulation of pain, distress, and social dysfunction in the lives of working class whites that took hold as the blue-collar economic heyday of the early 1970s ended, and continued through the 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent slow recovery.”

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income, protection, retirement, risk management

Closing the Retirement Savings Gap

James Cox

A new report from World Economic Forum shows that retirees could outlive their savings by a decade or more due to higher life expectancy. “Women should prepare to bear the brunt of such shortfalls, going without retirement savings for at least two years longer than their male counterparts.” (3)

“The size of the gap is such that it requires action,’ says report co-author Han Yik. (1)

The report shows men in the US have a retirement savings gap of 8.3 years. The report shows that women in the US have an average 10.9 year gap between what they have saved and what they will require due to increased longevity.

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