Climate change, economy, retirement, risk management

Ukraine, the Global Framework and Climate

On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. A number of times today I heard the phrase, “this changes things fundamentally.” The question is what does it change and how do we move forward? In particular, what does this mean for the climate crisis?

The climate crisis requires a level of international cooperation that has never been seen. The breakdown of the framework that came out of Glasgow and COP26 is the latest example of the challenge we face.

Events in Ukraine underscore deeper systemic issues that we need to address in order to be effective on an international scale.

Continue reading “Ukraine, the Global Framework and Climate”
economy, protection, retirement, risk management

How to Deal with Being Laid Off: 5 Strategies To Prepare For Job Change

Each day we read reports that the economy is booming.

“U.S. housing and consumer are strong” (1)

“Factory output is poised to speed up.”

“Stronger global growth expectations and a weaker dollar should help.”

“The stock market hits record highs…”

With that being the case, you might find it surprising that several large corporations have recently announced they will be laying off large numbers of employees, especially managers. (2)

Companies which are facing an increasingly tough business environment are being forced to “slash costs and stabilize”. (3) Some companies find themselves at a disadvantage because of the move away from fossil fuels. (4) Some companies have failed to innovate in order to remain competitive. Some companies have to carry legacy costs that newer competitors, especially those in the technology or e-commerce space do not have. Many companies are struggling to keep up with commodity and wage costs that are rising with inflation.

Continue reading “How to Deal with Being Laid Off: 5 Strategies To Prepare For Job Change”
economy, interest rates, retirement, risk management

Feb Jobs Day… “Buckle Up”

It has been a turbulent week…

Price of gasoline rose to the highest since 2014 at $3.43/gallon. Brent crude is at $93 per barrel.

Inflation number to be released next week is expected to rise to 7.3%, from 7.1% in January

On Thursday, the ECB announced it would pull back from QE faster than expected after their meeting on 2/3/22. ECB pivoted away from their policy of “lower rates for longer”. As a result, Italian yields are up dramatically. Yields of Italian bonds started the week at 1.2%… by Friday yields were over 1.7%. Negative yielding debt is at lowest level since 2018.

At a meeting in the UK, Bank of England Governor Bailey called on unions to hold off on demands for pay increases. Union officials called it “a sick joke”.

In equity markets Facebook (Meta) fell 25% and lost over $200billion in value overnight due to slower growth. The next day Amazon rose 15% and gained over $150billion in value on earnings and price hikes. These are massive flows of capital.

On Wednesday, ADP released numbers this week showed a decline of 301,000 jobs due to Omicron and a worsening in economic conditions due to rising bond yields. The question is how much of the drop is due to Omicron which is fading, and how much is due to a slowdown in the economy which could worsen as the Fed raises rates starting in March.

The White House warned “the January jobs number will be ugly”.

Continue reading “Feb Jobs Day… “Buckle Up””
economy, interest rates, retirement, risk management

What do rising rates mean for investors? In 2018, in 2020… and today in 2022

In January of 2022 markets sold off as investors came to grips with the realization that the Fed was committed to end Quantitative Easing (QE), raise rates by March of 2022, and begin selling assets from its balance sheet. After years of “easy money” monetary policy, the Fed had been forced to change direction due to rising inflation worries. (1)

“The market is significantly overvalued, which works okay when interest rates are at record lows,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “But when rates rise, valuations become a real issue, so the market is adjusting to the new interest rate reality.”

To understand how this affects your portfolio and retirement savings a bit of historical context can be helpful.

So first… a history lesson…

Continue reading “What do rising rates mean for investors? In 2018, in 2020… and today in 2022”
economy, entrepreneurship, new economy, retirement, risk management

The Work of Nations: 30 Years On…

When I first read “The Work of Nations” by Robert Reich in the mid-1990s I had almost no background in macroeconomics. (1) But in reading it, Reich was able to effectively describe how radically the economic system was changing as a result of Globalization. Reich at the time was Bill Clinton’s Secretary of Labor and a key member of his economic team.

As context, China’s economy in 1991 was $400 billion compared to $6,174 billion for the US. China entered the global trade organizations in 1992. Today China’s economy is $15.6 trillion compared to $23 trillion for the US for 2021. (11)

Continue reading “The Work of Nations: 30 Years On…”
Climate change, diversity, environment, ESG, risk management, Socially Responsible Investing, SRI

What is Socially Responsible Investing?

I have recently had several people ask me about SRI. What is it? Why does it matter?

The first thing to understand is SRI means different things to different people. Several years ago I attended a gathering of advisors focused on sustainability at the Bloomberg headquarters in NYC. I talked to many of the 300 attendees and what I found was every single person had a different interpretation of what SRI meant.

Some focused on promoting clean energy, some focused on workers issues and inequality, some focused on climate change, some look to exclude alcohol and tobacco, others focused on micro lending. Each focus is unique and approaches the challenge of investing with different assumptions.

Continue reading “What is Socially Responsible Investing?”
economy, interest rates, retirement, risk management

Jobs Friday: December 2021

As a financial advisor and someone who loves the study of economics, “Jobs Friday” is the highlight of my month. It is a signpost of where the economy has been for the past month or two, as well as giving clues about where it is headed in the coming month. Information derived from the Jobs Report posted by the US Dept of Labor is used by the Federal Reserve to judge, manage, and adjust monetary policy. Politicians on both sides use the information to justify and drive fiscal policy.

For this month’s report the expectation was for the economy to have created 550,000 new jobs. One factor going into the jobs report that is a concern is ‘how many people are going to come back into the labor market?’ Currently, economists estimate that nearly 8 million people are still out of the labor force, having left at the beginning of the COVID pandemic in February 2020. (3)

Continue reading “Jobs Friday: December 2021”
disability, economy, health, life insurance, protection, risk management

Deaths of Despair

In recent months companies at the center of the Opioid Crisis have been fighting in court about the roles they played in the epidemic that has affected millions of Americans. The over prescription of highly addictive drugs has had severe impacts on families, businesses, and the economy. (1) But the Opioid Crisis is only part of a much larger problem facing American Society.

In March of 2017 a landmark study was released connecting opioid abuse, financial insecurity, and death rates in the United States. The information is sobering and should be the focus of policy changes at all levels of government.

A recent study by Princeton Professors Anne Case and Angus Deaton titled, “Mortality and morbidity in the 21st century,” shows the connection between the rising mortality rates of the middle class in the US and “a measurable deterioration in economic and social wellbeing”. (2)

This deterioration has not suddenly developed. Rather, “Case and Deaton document an accumulation of pain, distress, and social dysfunction in the lives of working class whites that took hold as the blue-collar economic heyday of the early 1970s ended, and continued through the 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent slow recovery.”

Continue reading “Deaths of Despair”
economy, income, protection, retirement, risk management

Closing the Retirement Savings Gap

A new report from World Economic Forum shows that retirees could outlive their savings by a decade or more due to higher life expectancy. “Women should prepare to bear the brunt of such shortfalls, going without retirement savings for at least two years longer than their male counterparts.” (3)

“The size of the gap is such that it requires action,’ says report co-author Han Yik. (1)

The report shows men in the US have a retirement savings gap of 8.3 years. The report shows that women in the US have an average 10.9 year gap between what they have saved and what they will require due to increased longevity.

Continue reading “Closing the Retirement Savings Gap”
life insurance, protection, risk management

The Risk To Your Child’s Future

Loss of a parent shatters the life of a child. Period.

Loss of a parent’s love.
Loss of a guide through life’s challenges.
Loss of protection and security.

These are losses that are beyond measure and replacement. But the truth is these losses can be worsened by the financial impact that comes from a lack of planning and losing a parent.

7 in 10 of all households said they would have trouble covering everyday living expenses after several months if the primary wage earner died. (1)

Continue reading “The Risk To Your Child’s Future”